Artificial Intelligence is at the center of global attention. Investments are massive, expectations are even greater, and concerns are steadily rising.
To understand what might happen next, it’s worth revisiting the work of economist Carlota Pérez and her theory of Technological Great Surges.
The Carlota Pérez Theory
In her book Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital (2002), Pérez describes how every major technological revolution follows four phases:
- Installation: Early adoption, massive investment, bubbles, and hype.
- Crash / Crisis: Overinvestment leads to collapse and financial losses.
- Deployment: The technology stabilizes and becomes productively embedded in society.
- Maturity: The wave peaks and eventually gives way to the next surge.
Examples: the steam engine, electricity, telecommunications, and the dot-com boom and bust.
Where AI Stands Today
AI appears to be firmly in the Installation phase:
- Billions of dollars flowing into startups and research labs.
- Public discourse portraying AI as “the future of everything.”
- A growing risk of overhype and speculative bubbles.
According to Pérez, before reaching the “Golden Age” of AI, we may first experience a period of crisis or collapse.
Sam Altman’s Remark
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, openly admitted:
“Some investors will lose their money in the AI race.”
This statement aligns directly with Pérez’s theory:
- During the installation phase, everyone invests.
- During the crash, many lose.
- But from the ashes emerge the strongest players and the most sustainable technologies.
Just as the dot-com crash paved the way for the mature internet era (Google, Amazon, eBay), the coming AI correction may be the necessary step before the true Golden Age of Artificial Intelligence.
⚠️ What to Expect
- Short-term: Overhype, failed startups, and lost capital.
- Medium-term: Market consolidation, stronger governance, and more mature applications.
- Long-term: Stable integration of AI into every aspect of society and the economy.
Conclusion
Carlota Pérez provides the theoretical roadmap.
Sam Altman’s candid remark confirms we are right in the middle of that cycle.
AI may well pass through a “valley of disillusionment” — a period of loss and crisis.
But history suggests that beyond it lies the deployment stage: the real Golden Age of Artificial Intelligence.
